The Great Search Reality Check

SEO traffic is down ~2.5%, not 50%. Ads are surging. AI is reshaping attribution, not killing search.

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Welcome to the Click Raven newsletter.

Everyone keeps saying search is dead.

The numbers say otherwise.

Today’s stories break down why SEO traffic can be flat and still winning, why Google ads just hit a 5-year high, and how YouTube plans to scale creators (not replace them) in 2026.

AI in HR? It’s happening now.

Deel's free 2026 trends report cuts through all the hype and lays out what HR teams can really expect in 2026. You’ll learn about the shifts happening now, the skill gaps you can't ignore, and resilience strategies that aren't just buzzwords. Plus you’ll get a practical toolkit that helps you implement it all without another costly and time-consuming transformation project.

Is Search Dying? The Data Says No.

Since ChatGPT’s launch, the “SEO is dead” narrative has exploded. It’s driven by AI hype, surveys, and loud anecdotes. But a large-scale analysis of 40,000+ top US sites tells a very different story.

👉 Organic search traffic is down just -2.5% YoY, not the dramatic -25% to -50% often claimed.
👉 Search usage is flat to slightly up in 2025, including growth in Google visitors.
👉 AI Overviews do reduce CTR (~-35%), but they only appear ~30% of the time and mostly replace featured snippets — not high-intent keywords.
👉 90% of Google clicks still go to organic results, with ads accounting for just ~10%.

So where does the panic come from? Mostly flawed surveys, tiny samples, and anecdotal bias. When you look at real behavioral data at scale, search isn’t collapsing — it’s stabilizing and evolving.

SEO isn’t dead. The low-quality takes are. Read this report by Graphite here.

Why Flat SEO Traffic Can Still Mean You’re Winning

Seeing flat organic traffic used to signal trouble. In 2026, it often means the opposite.

AI Overviews and zero-click searches have fundamentally changed how SEO impact shows up. Nearly 65% of searches now end without a click, meaning your content can influence decisions, build trust, and drive conversions without ever registering a session in analytics.

The result? Visibility and traffic have decoupled. Impressions, authority, and brand recall can rise even as clicks stall.

Smart SEO teams are shifting focus from traffic volume to business outcomes:

  • Higher conversion rates from organic visitors

  • Increased branded search and direct traffic

  • Stronger performance on high-intent MOFU and BOFU keywords

  • Better lead quality and lower cost per acquisition

Flat traffic becomes a problem only when rankings, engagement, and conversions decline together. But when conversions, revenue per visitor, and lead quality are up, flat traffic is often a sign of more efficient, intent-driven SEO.

Modern SEO isn’t about maximizing clicks. It’s about maximizing revenue impact even when the traffic line doesn’t move.

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Google Search Ad Clicks Just Hit a 5-Year High

Despite all the noise around AI “killing search,” paid search is quietly surging.

In Q4 2025, Google search ad spend rose 13% YoY, while click growth hit its strongest level since early 2021 — and CPCs actually dipped for the second quarter in a row. The key driver: AI-expanded query volume, including more commercial searches, plus Amazon pulling back from U.S. Google Shopping auctions, easing auction pressure.

Key takeaways:

  • Google Shopping spend jumped 16% YoY, with CPCs down ~1% as Target and Walmart filled the gap left by Amazon.

  • Text ad clicks hit a 19-quarter high, up 9% YoY, with brand CPC growth slowing to just 2%.

  • Performance Max dominates, accounting for ~62% of Shopping spend, with growing exposure across YouTube, Display, and Video.

  • Microsoft Search grew faster than Google (+16% spend YoY), while Amazon Ads continued strong momentum, especially Sponsored Products (+23% clicks).

Bottom line: Search ads are very much alive. AI is expanding the funnel, not shrinking it — and with CPCs relatively stable, advertisers have a rare window to capture high-intent demand before competition catches up. Full report.

TikTok’s US Deal Done

After years of regulatory limbo, TikTok’s US operations have officially been spun off to a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX.

Under the new structure, ByteDance retains just under 20% ownership, while the US entity is governed by a seven-member, majority-American board overseeing data protection, content moderation, and algorithm security. TikTok’s US business is valued at roughly $14 billion.

For the 170 million Americans on TikTok and the brands built on it, this removes a major cloud of uncertainty. Marketers can plan with confidence, TikTok Shop and ads can scale without shutdown fears, and Oracle’s deeper involvement signals tighter US oversight. The platform continues unchanged for users, but its governance has decisively shifted.

YouTube’s 2026 Game Plan (Minus the Fluff)

YouTube isn’t reinventing itself in 2026 but tightening its grip.

CEO Neal Mohan says the platform is leaning into AI, TV-scale viewing, and creator monetization, while keeping creators (not tools) at the center.

Here’s what actually matters:

  • AI as a creative booster, not a replacement: AI-powered Shorts, music, games, and likeness tools are coming with guardrails to suppress low-quality, spammy AI content.

  • YouTube = TV now: Connected TV is a core focus, with customizable multiview and more flexible YouTube TV bundles across sports, news, and entertainment.

  • Creators get paid in more ways: New in-stream monetization, brand-led sponsorship matchmaking, and deeper in-app shopping tied to creator trust.

  • Kids safety without banning the internet: Better parental controls, Shorts time limits, and easier profile switching.

Bottom line: AI expands what’s possible, but creators still drive attention. YouTube’s 2026 strategy is about scale, trust, and revenue.

Until next time,
Ian, Click Raven